So the Giants are 1 win away from securing the 2014 championship, and they have experience in recent years with not choking. If the Royals can win game 6, and I think they will, they’ll have history on their side for game 7. Nobody in the World Series has lost a game 7 at home since the ’79 Orioles. That’s 9-0, with the most recent being the 2011 Cardinals. Those Cardinals came back to St Louis needing to win 2 games, just like this year’s Royals.
- ’82 Cardinals
- ’85 Royals
- ’86 Mets
- ’87 Twins
- ’91 Twins
- ’97 Marlins
- ’01 Diamondbacks
- ’02 Angels
- ’11 Cardinals
What I find more interesting than that though, is the pattern of wins in these series.
|World Series||Home Team||Thru 5 Games||Last 2 Games|
8 of those 9 teams, like this year’s Royals, came back home for game 6 with a 2-3 record. 100% of them went on to win both games 6 & 7. It remains to be seen if the Royals will join the club, but if history repeats itself, then they will. It’s possible Kansas City could lose game 6 though, and never see a game 7 to join this club. So how many teams coming back home with a 2-3 record have blown game 6?
|World Series||Home Team||Thru 5 Games||Last Game|
Only 2. So in total, 8 of these teams with the same criteria as the Royals went on to win game 6, and 2 of these teams lost it. That’s an 80% success rate for game 6, and 100% success rate for game 7. That’s really good news for the Royals.
On the other hand, this was nowhere near common before the ’82 Cardinals did it. Check out how clubs did from 1946-1981 when they had home field advantage, after game 5, being down 2 games to 3 (started at ’46, ’cause the ’45 World Series was a different format – 3 away, THEN 4 straight home).
|World Series||Home Team||Thru 5 Games||Game 6||Game 7|
Not only was it uncommon, it was quite rare. Only 13.3% accomplished it (2 out of 15).
I have no idea why there was such a big swing of change after 1981, but there was. It could be just plain ‘ol regression, post-season roster rules, teams figuring something out, a mental attitude, a mental block, pure chance, changes in free agency, or something else entirely.
I should mention that I don’t consider any of this predictive, since history has nothing to do with the current roster talent of either club. This ain’t sabermetrics, so don’t pretend it is. It’s just a curious historical observation. If history continues on its current track, the Royals will win games 6 & 7 to #TakeTheCrown.