51 Down, 30 To Go

After this afternoon’s 14 inning win over Milwaukee, the Pirates are sitting pretty at 51-30. Not only are they the first team to reach 50 W’s, but they’re actually on pace for 100 victories. I’m not saying they’ll pull that off, but just the idea that the Pirates would be in this position, is almost inconceivable.

This pretty much guarantees Pittsburgh of a .500 season. Sure, mathematically they could still go 29-52, to finish at 80-82, but how likely is that? I haven’t worked out the math for that, but I’m pretty sure it’s pretty close to 0% chance.

With only having to go 30-51 (.370) for about half a season to make it to the hallowed 81 win mark, I seriously can’t see this Pirates club playing worse than that for a full half a season. I’m sure some of you are thinking that I’m gettin’ ahead of myself, ’cause Pittsburgh finished the past two years with stretches of 19-43 (.306) in 2011, and 16-36 (.308) in 2012.

While those winning percentages are both far worse than the .370 that the team needs to maintain this year, the amount of games in those slumps were also much smaller. If the Pirates suddenly go on a .308 pace from here on out, it means they’ll go 25-56. That’d leave them only 5 wins short of 81 for their whole season. We know that anything can happen in 5 games over the course of 81. It could be as simple as the ball bouncing in the Pirates favor, or even the opposing team taking Pittsburgh for granted. So it’s not inconceivable for them to win 30 more games even if they suddenly turn back into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight and July starts.

51 down, 30 to go.